Canada’s Housing Market: Signs of a Slow Thaw—But No Heatwave Yet
After months of stagnation, Canada’s housing market is showing subtle signs of life. Sales have ticked upward for four straight months, according to CREA, but the recovery remains uneven—and far from the boom mortgage professionals have been hoping for.
📍 Toronto: Still Cold, Despite a Flicker of Activity Toronto’s market, once ablaze during the pandemic, remains subdued. Interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 cooled demand dramatically, and even recent increases in transactions haven’t shifted the broader outlook. Inventory remains high, and buyers are still cautious.
💸 Affordability: A Slow Crawl Forward Ratehub.ca’s latest data shows marginal improvements in affordability across most major cities. From Toronto to Halifax, the income required to buy a home has dipped slightly—but not enough to reignite widespread buyer enthusiasm. In Toronto, for example, the required income fell by just over $4,000, but still exceeds $200,000.
📊 What This Means for Mortgage Professionals
- Client Hesitation: Buyers remain wary, citing economic uncertainty and affordability concerns.
- Regional Strategy: Markets like the Prairies, Quebec, and parts of Atlantic Canada may offer more promising growth through 2026.
- Product Positioning: With affordability slowly improving, brokers may find opportunities in alternative lending, downpayment assistance programs, and flexible mortgage products.
🔮 Looking Ahead Don’t expect a 2020-style boom. RBC forecasts a gradual demand increase by 2026, but warns that labour market fragility and immigration shifts will temper growth. Ontario and BC, in particular, will continue to face affordability headwinds and condo market imbalances.
Sam Ansari | Mortgage Broker & Real Estate Market Analyst Helping Canadians navigate the housing market with clarity and confidence. Whether you’re buying your first home, refinancing, or exploring investment opportunities, I provide expert insights and personalized guidance to make smart financial decisions.
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